Bracket Horizon Dashboard

How the optimized bracket evolves as the horizon gets deeper.

This report compares the best saved bracket for each cutoff round and highlights how expected value rises, which teams survive deeper into the tree, and where the optimizer changes its mind as it starts caring about later rounds.

Horizons Loaded
6
EV Range
74.39
Best Horizon
Title
Trend

Expected Value by Horizon

114.796.177.558.940.3 40.3069.5787.5999.85107.76114.69 R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
Comparison

Each Optimized Bracket Against the Others

Each line shows the cumulative expected value of one horizon-optimized bracket. Lines stop at their own cutoff, so the R64 bracket ends after Round 1, the R32 bracket ends after Round 2, and so on.

R64 bracket
R32 bracket
Sweet 16 bracket
Elite 8 bracket
Final Four bracket
Title bracket
114.795.075.255.535.8 R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
Bracket R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
R64 bracket 40.30-----
R32 bracket 37.8269.57----
Sweet 16 bracket 37.6968.9187.59---
Elite 8 bracket 35.7867.1486.1598.80--
Final Four bracket 37.6967.2886.5099.04107.76-
Title bracket 35.7866.5986.1198.76107.96114.69
Transitions

What Changed from One Horizon to the Next

R64 -> R32

+29.27 EV
R64 5 changes
  • Northern Iowa -> St John's
  • South Florida -> Louisville
  • UCF -> UCLA
  • Hofstra -> Alabama
  • Santa Clara -> Kentucky

R32 -> Sweet 16

+18.02 EV
R64 1 changes
  • Gonzaga -> Kennesaw St
R32 3 changes
  • Utah State -> Arizona
  • Missouri -> Purdue
  • Saint Louis -> Michigan

Sweet 16 -> Elite 8

+12.26 EV
R64 5 changes
  • Hawai'i -> Arkansas
  • Kennesaw St -> Gonzaga
  • McNeese -> Vanderbilt
  • Nebraska -> Troy
  • Wright St -> Virginia
R32 1 changes
  • Nebraska -> Vanderbilt
Sweet 16 1 changes
  • Nebraska -> Vanderbilt

Elite 8 -> Final Four

+7.91 EV
R64 5 changes
  • Arkansas -> Hawai'i
  • Troy -> Nebraska
  • Alabama -> Hofstra
  • Virginia -> Wright St
  • Kentucky -> Santa Clara
R32 4 changes
  • Texas -> Gonzaga
  • Purdue -> Missouri
  • Alabama -> Akron
  • Kentucky -> Iowa State
Sweet 16 1 changes
  • Purdue -> Gonzaga

Final Four -> Title

+6.93 EV
R64 6 changes
  • Michigan St -> N Dakota St
  • Hawai'i -> Arkansas
  • Nebraska -> Troy
  • Hofstra -> Alabama
  • Wright St -> Virginia
  • Santa Clara -> Kentucky
R32 2 changes
  • High Point -> Arkansas
  • Iowa State -> Kentucky
Teams

Team Survival Matrix Across Horizons

Each cell shows the deepest round that team reaches in that horizon's optimized bracket. Teams are sorted by how deep they ever go across the six horizons.

Team R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
(1) Duke R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
(1) Michigan R64R64Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourFinal Four
(3) Illinois R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Elite 8Elite 8
(1) Arizona R64R64Sweet 16Elite 8Elite 8Elite 8
(6) Tennessee R64R32Sweet 16Sweet 16Sweet 16Sweet 16
(6) Louisville OutR32Sweet 16Sweet 16Sweet 16Sweet 16
(2) Purdue R64R64Sweet 16Sweet 16R64R64
(3) Gonzaga R64R64OutR64Sweet 16Sweet 16
(5) Vanderbilt OutOutOutSweet 16Sweet 16Sweet 16
(4) Nebraska R64R32Sweet 16OutR64Out
(9) Iowa R64R32R32R32R32R32
(10) Texas A&M R64R32R32R32R32R32
(5) St John's OutR32R32R32R32R32
(7) UCLA OutR32R32R32R32R32
(12) High Point R64R32R32R32R32R64
(10) Missouri R64R32R64R64R32R32
(11) Texas R64R32R32R32R64R64
(7) Kentucky OutR32R32R32OutR32
(12) Akron R64R64R64R64R32R32
(2) Iowa State R64R64R64R64R32R64
(4) Alabama OutR32R32R32OutR64
(9) Saint Louis R64R32R64R64R64R64
(9) Utah State R64R32R64R64R64R64
(4) Arkansas OutOutOutR64OutR32
(1) Florida R64R64R64R64R64R64
(2) Houston R64R64R64R64R64R64
(2) UConn R64R64R64R64R64R64
(9) TCU R64R64R64R64R64R64
(11) VCU R64R64R64R64R64R64
(13) CA Baptist R64R64R64R64R64R64
(3) Michigan St R64R64R64R64R64Out
(13) Hawai'i R64R64R64OutR64Out
(14) Wright St R64R64R64OutR64Out
(12) McNeese R64R64R64OutOutOut
(3) Virginia OutOutOutR64OutR64
(10) Santa Clara R64OutOutOutR64Out
(13) Hofstra R64OutOutOutR64Out
(13) Troy OutOutOutR64OutR64
(10) UCF R64OutOutOutOutOut
(11) South Florida R64OutOutOutOutOut
(12) Northern Iowa R64OutOutOutOutOut
(14) Kennesaw St OutOutR64OutOutOut
(14) N Dakota St OutOutOutOutOutR64
(4) Kansas OutOutOutOutOutOut
(5) Texas Tech OutOutOutOutOutOut
(5) Wisconsin OutOutOutOutOutOut
(6) BYU OutOutOutOutOutOut
(6) North Carolina OutOutOutOutOutOut
(7) Miami OutOutOutOutOutOut
(7) Saint Mary's OutOutOutOutOutOut
(8) Clemson OutOutOutOutOutOut
(8) Georgia OutOutOutOutOutOut
(8) Ohio State OutOutOutOutOutOut
(8) Villanova OutOutOutOutOutOut
(11) Miami OH OutOutOutOutOutOut
(14) Penn OutOutOutOutOutOut
(15) Furman OutOutOutOutOutOut
(15) Idaho OutOutOutOutOutOut
(15) Queens OutOutOutOutOutOut
(15) Tennessee St OutOutOutOutOutOut
(16) Howard OutOutOutOutOutOut
(16) Long Island OutOutOutOutOutOut
(16) Prairie View OutOutOutOutOutOut
(16) Siena OutOutOutOutOutOut
Similarity

How Similar the Horizon Brackets Are

Each percentage compares two horizons across all rounds they both specify. Lighter cells mean the optimizer is making almost the same choices in both views.

Horizon R64R32Sweet 16Elite 8Final FourTitle
R64100%84%81%72%88%69%
R3284%100%92%83%81%77%
Sweet 1681%92%100%88%80%77%
Elite 872%83%88%100%83%90%
Final Four88%81%80%83%100%87%
Title69%77%77%90%87%100%
Profiles

Best Bracket at Each Cutoff

Cutoff Round 1

R64

EV 40.30
Saved from best_partial_round_1.json
R64 outlook
1Duke9TCU12Northern Iowa13CA Baptist11South Florida3Michigan St10UCF2UConn1Arizona9Utah State12High Point13Hawai'i11Texas3Gonzaga10Missouri2Purdue1Florida9Iowa12McNeese4Nebraska11VCU3Illinois10Texas A&M2Houston1Michigan9Saint Louis12Akron13Hofstra6Tennessee14Wright St10Santa Clara2Iowa State
Earlier picks
Early-round view only
Cutoff Round 2

R32

EV 69.57
Saved from best_partial_round_2.json
R32 outlook
1Duke5St John's6Louisville7UCLA9Utah State12High Point11Texas10Missouri9Iowa4Nebraska3Illinois10Texas A&M9Saint Louis4Alabama6Tennessee7Kentucky
R64
1Duke9TCU5St John's13CA Baptist6Louisville3Michigan St7UCLA2UConn1Arizona9Utah State12High Point13Hawai'i11Texas3Gonzaga10Missouri2Purdue1Florida9Iowa12McNeese4Nebraska11VCU3Illinois10Texas A&M2Houston1Michigan9Saint Louis12Akron4Alabama6Tennessee14Wright St7Kentucky2Iowa State
Cutoff Round 3

Sweet 16

EV 87.59
Saved from best_partial_round_3.json
Sweet 16 outlook
1Duke6Louisville1Arizona2Purdue4Nebraska3Illinois1Michigan6Tennessee
R32
1Duke5St John's6Louisville7UCLA1Arizona12High Point11Texas2Purdue9Iowa4Nebraska3Illinois10Texas A&M1Michigan4Alabama6Tennessee7Kentucky
Cutoff Round 4

Elite 8

EV 99.85
Saved from best_partial_round_4.json
Elite 8 outlook
1Duke1Arizona3Illinois1Michigan
Sweet 16
1Duke6Louisville1Arizona2Purdue5Vanderbilt3Illinois1Michigan6Tennessee
Cutoff Round 5

Final Four

EV 107.76
Saved from best_partial_round_5.json
Final Four outlook
1Duke1Michigan
Elite 8
1Duke1Arizona3Illinois1Michigan
Cutoff Round 6

Title

EV 114.69
Saved from best_bracket.json
Title outlook
1Duke
Final Four
1Duke1Michigan